Assessing the impact of earthquake scenarios in transportation networks: the Portuguese mining factory case study

This study presents an open-source framework for the evaluation of the consequences of seismic events on transportation systems, and their impact on the surrounding industry. When applied to the specific case of a given company or organization, the framework allows the estimation of expected losses due to the disruption of specific transportation routes. The methodology was applied to a case study of a Portuguese mining factory whose production and exportation rely on the accessibility to strategic regions in the country using the highway and railway networks. Several methodological issues (e.g., spatial correlation in the ground motion, correlation in the damage) are explored within a sensitivity analysis to identify which features can impact seismic performance indicators (collapse and disruption probabilities; repair and disruption time) of specific routes.