A deterministic framework for selecting a flood forecasting and warning system at watershed scale

Feasibility and efficiency of flood forecasting and warning systems (FFWS) are among the most important aims of the watershed flood management. In this paper, a framework was developed to select an FFWS with respect to the costs and benefits of developing and using them and depending on the location and the time of concentration of target points. Target points were determined according to the exposure to flood risk of recreational and population centres in the watershed. A comparison of the economic costs or damages, the injuries or loss of lives for the cases with or without an FFWS had been carried out. The costs of FFWS had been estimated by means of an analysis of the components and equipments required by the hydrological features of the watershed. The economic damages had been estimated based on survey information of assets in the floodplain, lead time for target points and the injuries or losses of lives. These had been estimated according to the intensity of flood hazard, vulnerability, behaviour of population and its location relative to the hazard exposure.