In current practice, probabilistic seismic risk assessment of distributed portfolios of structures involves the generation of stochastic event catalogues, usually assuming a Poissonian occurrence model. Such models are typically developed based on “declustered” historical and instrumental catalogues of past events. This practice is justifiable for design but the notion that mainshock events can be considered representative of the damage potential of seismic sequences is dubious. Herein, we model seismicity as an epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) process in order to investigate the effects of seismicity clustering on regional risk assessment. Loss estimates are derived by ETAS-generated stochastic event catalogues for the region of Umbria in Central Italy, and are compared with those obtained with a conventional Poisson-based model. The potential gains of utilizing a model capable of capturing the spatio-temporal clustering features of seismicity are illustrated and offered along with a discussion on the various details and challenges of such considerations.

Towards Incorporation of Seismicity Clustering in Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation

PAPADOPOULOS, ATHANASIOS;Bazzurro P
In corso di stampa

Abstract

In current practice, probabilistic seismic risk assessment of distributed portfolios of structures involves the generation of stochastic event catalogues, usually assuming a Poissonian occurrence model. Such models are typically developed based on “declustered” historical and instrumental catalogues of past events. This practice is justifiable for design but the notion that mainshock events can be considered representative of the damage potential of seismic sequences is dubious. Herein, we model seismicity as an epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) process in order to investigate the effects of seismicity clustering on regional risk assessment. Loss estimates are derived by ETAS-generated stochastic event catalogues for the region of Umbria in Central Italy, and are compared with those obtained with a conventional Poisson-based model. The potential gains of utilizing a model capable of capturing the spatio-temporal clustering features of seismicity are illustrated and offered along with a discussion on the various details and challenges of such considerations.
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12076/1651
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact